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   تحلیل فرآیند گسترش و الگویابی فضا در محورهای برون شهری کلان شهر تهران ، مورد مطالعه: محور تهرانایوانکی  
نویسنده لعلی نیت ایلیا ,کمانرودی کجوری موسی ,کرمی تاج الدین
منبع اطلاعات جغرافيايي (سپهر) - 1400 - دوره : 30 - شماره : 120 - صفحه:121 -137
چکیده    تجزیه ‌و تحلیل پیکربندی فضایی و پویایی رشد شهری از موضوعات مهم در مطالعات شهری معاصر است. بر این اساس، در پژوهش حاضر به تحلیل فرآیند گسترش و الگویابی فضا در محورهای برون‌شهری کلان‌شهر تهران به ایونکی پرداخته شد. به این منظور، ابتدا با استفاده از تصاویر سری زمانی ماهواره لندست، نقشه‌های کاربری اراضی برای سال‌های 1364، 1379، 1390 و 1399 با استفاده از مدل نظارت‌شده fuzzy artmap استخراج گردید و سپس با بهره‌گیری از  lcm تغییرات مربوط به کاربری‌ها کم زیادشدن مساحت کاربری اراضی و همچنین با استفاده از توابع ریاضی 7 جمله‌ای الگوی تغییر سایر کاربری‌ها به نفع کاربری ساخته‌شده استخراج شد و درنهایت با استفاده از مدل سلول‌های خودکار و زنجیره‌های مارکوف به ‌پیش‌بینی گسترش شهری در این منطقه برای سال 1410 پرداخته شد. نتایج حاصل نشان داد که در دوره 35ساله حدود 30495 هکتار به وسعت اراضی ساخته‌شده  افزوده ‌شده است که الگوی گسترش شهری در این منطقه کاملاً بر الگوی شبکه‌های ارتباطی موجود منطبق و جهتی شمال غربی به جنوب‌شرقی دارد. همچنین نتایج طبقه‌بندی تصاویر ماهواره‌ای و پیش‌بینی پوشش اراضی نیز نشان داد که در محور شهری تهران ایوانکی با توجه به روند رشد شهری منطقه در سال 1410 مساحت ارضی ساخته‌شده به بیش از 50 هزار هکتار خواهد رسید. مطابق با نتایج، اقدامات مناسب برای کنترل تغییرات کاربری زمین به‌ویژه رشد شهر به‌منظور حفظ محیط‌زیست و تعادل اکولوژیکی منطقه نیاز است.
کلیدواژه گسترش و الگویابی فضا، محور برون شهری، تصاویر ماهواره ای، توسعۀ شهری، محور تهران ایوانکی
آدرس دانشگاه خوارزمی, ایران, دانشگاه خوارزمی, ایران, دانشگاه خوارزمی, ایران
پست الکترونیکی karamit@khu.ac.ir
   Expanding and spatial patterning analysis in suburban axes of Tehran, Case study: TehranEyvanekey axis  
Authors Laaliniyat Ilia ,Kamanroudi Koujori Mousa ,Karami Tajeddin
Abstract    Extended AbstractIntroductionThe third millennium has been called the age of urbanization and the urban population is expected to reach about 6.25 billion by 2050. The United Nations also estimates that the urban population of developing regions will grow at an average annual rate of about 2.02 percent, from 2.67 billion in 2011 to 3.92 billion in 2030. Indeed, the urbanization process is a phenomenon that has become increasingly concentrated in developing countries in recent decades. Although the pace of change varies considerably between countries and regions, in fact all developing countries are becoming increasingly urbanized. The increase in urbanization has caused many problems in urban areas. This has led to the fact that today land use management of urban infrastructure has become the main challenge of many planners and city managers. Accordingly, this study seeks to investigate the scattering around the TehranEyvanekey communication axis, so Pakdasht cities with about 210 thousand people , Sharifabad with about 12,000 people and Eyvanekey with about 12,000 people, make it one of the busiest axes in the metropolitan area of Tehran. Research MethodsThe main purpose of this study is to analyze the process of space expansion and modeling in the axis of Tehran Eyvanekey between 1985 and 2020 using remote sensing data and GIS. To have a comprehensive study of spatial organization of this metropolis, a deductive or inductive approach with a practical nature has been used. The basis of the study is based on using the satellite data and images (Landsat multitime images) related to different years. Using IDRISI, GIS and GOOGLE EARTH softwares and Fuzzy Artmap LCM, MARKOV and CA models. Discussion resultsIn this study, in order to evaluate the pattern of expansion of built areas in the corridor of Tehran to Eyvanekey, TM and ETM + images of Landsat satellite related to the years 1985, 2000, 2011, and 2020 have been used. Based on this, the amount of land use changes in the four periods is as follows: The most expansion of practical surfaces in the axis of TehranEyvanekey with an area of 223250 hectares, dedicated to built areas with an increase of 30,495 hectares over the last 35 years. After identifying the urban expansion pattern of TehranEyvanekey corridor, in the next stage, in order to simulate how land use changes in the axis of TehranEyvanekey for the year 2031, the method of automatic cells and chains has been used. For this purpose, to simulate land use changes in the axis of Tehran Eyvanekey in 2031, land use maps in 1985 and 2020 were used. The results show that according to the trend of urban growth in the region in 2031, the land area will reach more than 50,000 hectares. Also, according to the growth rate of urban areas in this region, it can be seen that during different periods, we see a kind of exponential growth in the study area, so that for the period 1985 to 2000, about 240 hectares per year have been built. This trend of growth has expanded and in the next period, ie 2000 to 2011, this number has reached about 580 hectares, and finally in the last period, ie 2011 to 2020, we have witnessed the expansion of about 2251 hectares per year in the built lands, which can be signs of accelerative urbanization. Therefore, the strategy of increasing physical density and using related methods to guide the development of the city towards greater sustainability, should be on the agenda of planners and those in charge of urban affairs. ConclusionModeling land use changes is an effective way to obtain information about how land use changes over time as well as the factors affect it. So, in order to analyze the process of space expansion and modeling in the axis of TehranEyvanekey, it was modeled over a period of 35 years. The results showed that most of the land use changes during this period are related to the built lands, which due to the location of the built areas along the main arteries has a northwestsoutheast pattern that is affected by urban growth in the metropolis of Tehran. As a result, they live in these areas, which are either engaged in the urban industries of these areas or use the satellite cities in this corridor as dormitory cities. Interestingly, as we move away from the main center, the metropolis of Tehran, the rate of urban land expansion decreases, which indicates that due to the low cost of housing in satellite cities, this area is a dormitory for the metropolis of Tehran.

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