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   Implications of Cointegration For Forecasting: A Review and An Empirical Analysis  
نویسنده Barakchian Mahdi
منبع Journal Of Money And Economy - 2012 - دوره : 7 - شماره : 1 - صفحه:87 -118
چکیده    Cointegration has different theoretical implications for forecasting. several empirical studies have compared the out of sample forecasting performance of cointegrted vecms against unrestricted vars in levels and in differences. the results of these studies have been generally mixed and inconclusive. this paper provides a comprehensive review over the subject, and also examines the effects of cointegration rank restrictions on forecasting performance of var models through conducting an empirical exercise in the framework of a new twocountry (canada-us) model. the results show that a var/dvar model forecasts as well as the best cointegrated var model (and even better). therefore, it seems that using cointegration techniques does not pay a dividend.
کلیدواژه Cointegration ,Forecasting Using Vecx* ,Rank Restrictions
آدرس Sharif University Of Technology, School Of Management And Economics, ایران
پست الکترونیکی barakchian@sharif.edu

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